I was surprised they went right to the 3 way, figured they would've saved it for Summerslam.
Either way, according to "reports" the house show business is down 30% from last year with Reigns as champ. On top of that, he headlines the "A" shows while Ambrose headlines the "B" shows in smaller cities and they are drawing the same. So, "they" are theorizing this is why he lost the belt and why he probably won't be getting it back for awhile. Ratings aren't the best either, but there are lots of reasons for this. Cena being gone is one, bad booking is another. I wouldn't really pin this on Roman.
I would expect Ambrose to retain here or have it go right back to Rollins. Maybe have Rollins pin Reigns so Ambrose is pissed at him for costing him his title and they can have a feud that leads to Roman's heel turn.